How do energy markets react to climate policy uncertainty? Fossil vs. renewable and low-carbon energy assets

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on fossil-based, as well as renewable and low-carbon-based energy markets. Leveraging advanced techniques such as Wavelet Coherence, Quantile Cross-Spectral, and Quantile-on-Quantile analyses, our study uncovers that CPU is a significant driving force for both types of energy assets, though the effect of CPU on energy assets is time-varying. Noticeably, our findings reveal that CPU exerts a substantial adverse effect on most fossil-based energy commodity futures' returns. However, in normal or bearish markets, fossil energy assets exhibit a relatively stronger performance and display favorable associations with CPU at specific frequencies. Overall, fossil energy assets offer limited hedge opportunities against CPU, depending on quantiles and frequencies. Conversely, CPU favors the renewable and low-emission assets' returns, underscoring their resilience and robust hedging characteristics against CPU. These findings hold significant implications for environmentalists, investors, and policymakers, equipping them with valuable insights to make informed decisions and craft appropriate strategies amidst the backdrop of CPU-induced fluctuations in energy markets.

Keywords: Climate policy uncertainty Quantile Cross-Spectral low-emission assets