Influence of COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector: evidence from China and United States stocks

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has adversely impacted the globally interconnected economy and brought the tourism sector to a temporary standstill. As such, this study aimed to investigate the spillover effect of industrial sectors by emphasizing the tourism sector. The study data was gathered from China and The United States (US) between 2019 and 2020 (pandemic period) using the Multivariate Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (MGARCH-DCC) and Wavelet Coherence Transform (CWT) techniques to analyse the investment holding period. Country-wise, the sectoral return volatility in China was significantly higher than the US counterpart. Additionally, the intra-sector correlation analyses demonstrated that Chinese sectors successfully mitigated the intra-sector correction in the last quarter of 2019. A short-term holding period was also suggested for investors in China while a long-term counterpart was recommended for investors in the US. Regarding the Chinese and US industrial sectors in the first quarter of 2020, it was mutually concluded that both country stocks reflected high volatility. The tourism sector was also negatively affected throughout the pandemic period (between 2019 and 2020). Essentially, this study offered practical contributions to investors, mutual fund holders, and brokers.

Keywords COVID-19, Economy, Spillover, Tourism, Volatility sectors