Talking Trump and tanking markets
| dc.contributor.author | Zheng ,Yuqi | |
| dc.contributor.author | Lucey ,Brian | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-01-22T07:57:29Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-01-22T07:57:29Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025 | |
| dc.description | Ofer and Siegel (1987) examine how unexpected financial policy announcements induced changes in firm performance. This offers a lens for understanding the possible disconnect between political communication and market behavior, especially in politically charged sectors like clean energy. Recent studies show that energy and policy shocks significantly influence clean energy stocks. We find that oil supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks tend to have a positive effect on clean energy returns, while oil-specific demand shocks and policy uncertainty shocks have a negative impact. These effects are persistent over time. | |
| dc.description.abstract | This study investigates the impact of Trump-related events, measured by the urgency around his mentions in central bank speeches, on volatility in the clean energy market. Using advanced textual analysis, we construct event-related variables and assess their significance through Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). Based on the EBA results, we identify Urgency and Commitment as the two key factors, selected from the top and bottom percentiles of robustness rankings. These variables form the basis of an event study framework used to assess the causal impact of policy signals on abnormal market returns This approach enables us to assess not only whether Trump-related policy speeches influence the clean energy market, but also when and under what level of commitment such influence occurs. Importantly, central bank speeches that express high urgency may initially cause uncertainty or caution rather than immediate market action. This delayed response highlights the need to consider both the timing and tone of policy communication when evaluating market reactions. Keywords Clean energy, Political text, Urgency, Market dynamics, Abnormal return (AR), Cumulative abnormal return (CAR), Signal, Trump | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Zheng, Y., & Lucey, B. (2025). Talking Trump and tanking markets. Finance Research Letters, 107846. | |
| dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107846 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.adu.ac.ae/handle/1/8074 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Elesvier | |
| dc.title | Talking Trump and tanking markets | |
| dc.type | Article |