Identifying structural changes and regime switching in growing and declining inbound tourism markets in Australia

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic changes in the number of tourists arriving in Australia from 53 markets using monthly data (1991m1–2014m4). A modified capital asset pricing model incorporating Markov switching and Bai–Perron search models is adopted to measure the extent to which individual arrival series exhibit systematic co-movements in relation to total arrivals as a global composite barometer. The study identifies 15 large and growing markets from different countries and regions with the switching/shifting betas greater than +1, suggesting a diverse portfolio that, if properly managed, will continue to sustain Australia's tourism industry. The study presents a series of marketing and promotion strategies to improve marketing efficiency and implications for further research are discussed.