Single-family housing market trends in the cradle of new urbanism: Seaside, Florida USA

Abstract

Conceived as a resort town along the scenic State Highway 30A of the Florida (FL) Panhandle in the United States, Seaside is the cradle of New Urbanism. At the time, it was a common perception that a beachfront town based on the traditional neighborhood principles of New Urbanism could not attract interested buyers or retailers. However, Seaside evolved into a self-sustainable beach resort town accommodating a diversity of buildings types and parcels. The growth of housing, retail, and commercial units in Seaside over the last four decades offers lessons about economic sustainability in terms of avoiding a heavy debt burden during the land development process for single- and multi-family residential, mixed-use, live-work, and other public and civic uses. The real estate market in Seaside and Florida experienced significant surges in land value over the years, which successfully fed and sustained its economic development model. The research in this paper analyzes the sales price fluctuations of single-family residential parcels in Seaside over 34 years from 1984 to 2018, including charting the median and average prices of qualified sales against the background of state housing trends. The purpose is to understand how Seaside weathered the housing bubble of 2006-2008 and consequent market corrections of the 2008 Financial Crisis and Great Recession of 2008-2010, if at all. We also review sales prices of waterfront and inland residential parcels to determine if any differences and fluctuations might be attributable to location In the urban plan of Seaside. The analysis includes quantifying the relationship between sales prices and actual square footage of single-family residential units as well as space syntax modeling of the pedestrian movement network. The paper concludes there is 1) circumstantial evidence the steep decline of land values in Seaside in 2006 was a leading indicator of the housing market collapse and 2) ample evidence of sale price recovery based on a gradual appreciation of land values after the 2008 Financial Crisis. However, to date, land value has not recovered its 2005 peak levels.